novaBBS - rec.games.backgammon - Rollout: Hit first, ask questions later

Hit first, ask questions later

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Hit first, ask questions later
Date: Sat, 18 Nov 2023 09:52:28 -0500
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by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 18 Nov 2023 14:52 UTC

XGID=----B-EaCB-Ab--b-c-cB-b-b-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X O O |
| O O | | O X O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X X O | | X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 114 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62

---
Tim Chow

Re: Hit first, ask questions later

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah...Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Hit first, ask questions later
Date: Sun, 19 Nov 2023 11:34:53 -0500
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by: ah...Clem - Sun, 19 Nov 2023 16:34 UTC

On 11/18/2023 9:52 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=----B-EaCB-Ab--b-c-cB-b-b-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> |       O     O    |   | O X     O     O |
> |       O     O    |   | O X     O     O |
> |             O    |   | O                |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                  |BAR|                  |
> |                  |   | X                |
> |                  |   | X                |
> |             X    |   | X                |
> | O        X X    |   | X     X          |
> | O X     X X O |   | X     X          |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 131 O: 114 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 62

X has an advanced anchor and O's board is weak. Plus X is behind in the
race, so hitting seems sound. Then slot the five point? Risky, but when
it works it works and if not X can recirculate without too much
difficulty. Running off the anchor seems antipositional, and we don't
want to bury checkers, so I'll play 11/5 9/7*.

Rollout: Hit first, ask questions later

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Hit first, ask questions later
Date: Mon, 20 Nov 2023 17:19:26 -0500
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by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 20 Nov 2023 22:19 UTC

XGID=----B-EaCB-Ab--b-c-cB-b-b-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

This position dramatically illustrates the difference between the
golden anchor and the bar-point anchor. It makes sense to hit since
we're behind in the pip count and if we don't hit, O's straggler
will likely get away. But if we hit, we have to expose a lot of
shots and blots. Is it worth the risk? According to XG, the answer
is a resounding yes in this position, but not in the variant where
X has the bar-point anchor instead.

1. Rollout¹ 11/5 9/7* eq:-0.323
Player: 40.51% (G:10.44% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 59.49% (G:13.52% B:0.27%)
Confidence: ±0.020 (-0.344..-0.303) - [98.7%]

2. Rollout¹ 9/3 9/7* eq:-0.350 (-0.026)
Player: 40.25% (G:9.50% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 59.75% (G:13.36% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.360..-0.339) - [1.2%]

3. Rollout¹ 9/7* 7/1 eq:-0.357 (-0.034)
Player: 39.98% (G:9.03% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 60.02% (G:10.99% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.366..-0.348) - [0.1%]

4. Rollout¹ 11/5 6/4 eq:-0.478 (-0.154)
Player: 35.77% (G:3.01% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 64.23% (G:2.84% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.487..-0.469) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=----B-EaCB-Ab--b-cBc--b-b-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O O O |
| O O X | | O O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X X O | | X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 127 O: 114 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62

1. Rollout¹ 11/5 6/4 eq:-0.315
Player: 39.81% (G:2.66% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 60.19% (G:2.12% B:0.08%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.321..-0.310) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 9/7* 7/1 eq:-0.341 (-0.025)
Player: 42.02% (G:9.72% B:0.28%)
Opponent: 57.98% (G:18.17% B:0.63%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.349..-0.332) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 11/5 9/7* eq:-0.342 (-0.027)
Player: 41.84% (G:11.56% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 58.16% (G:22.75% B:0.76%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.351..-0.334) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 9/3 9/7* eq:-0.352 (-0.036)
Player: 41.80% (G:10.21% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 58.20% (G:20.57% B:0.75%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.360..-0.344) - [0.0%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

FORTUNE'S RULES TO LIVE BY: #2 Never goose a wolverine.

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Hit first, ask questions later

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Hit first, ask questions later

Subject	Author
Hit first, ask questions later	Timothy Chow
Re: Hit first, ask questions later	ah...Clem
Rollout: Hit first, ask questions later	Timothy Chow