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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Rollout: Live by adages, die by adages

SubjectAuthor
* Live by adages, die by adagesTimothy Chow
+- Re: Live by adages, die by adagesBlueDice
+- Re: Live by adages, die by adagesStick Rice
+- Re: Live by adages, die by adagesah...Clem
`* Rollout: Live by adages, die by adagesTimothy Chow
 `- Re: Rollout: Live by adages, die by adagesStick Rice

1
Live by adages, die by adages

<uj00t8$18ubs$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Live by adages, die by adages
Date: Tue, 14 Nov 2023 09:40:40 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 14 Nov 2023 14:40 UTC

XGID=-Ba-B-C-C---cC-b-d-eB-----:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X | +---+
| X O O | | O X | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 54

---
Tim Chow

Re: Live by adages, die by adages

<ee60e7ab-2aed-416b-abc4-8112d3dbbce3n@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: Live by adages, die by adages
From: davidgal...@gmail.com (BlueDice)
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 by: BlueDice - Tue, 14 Nov 2023 14:53 UTC

On Tuesday, November 14, 2023 at 2:40:43 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-Ba-B-C-C---cC-b-d-eB-----:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O X | +---+
> | X O O | | O X | | 2 |
> | X O | | O | +---+
> | O | | O |
> | | | O |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X X X |
> | O X | | X X O X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 131 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 54
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

I'll go with Michy, 'play ultra safe at the advanced stage', 13/4
--
BD

Re: Live by adages, die by adages

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Subject: Re: Live by adages, die by adages
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Wed, 15 Nov 2023 08:06 UTC

On Tuesday, November 14, 2023 at 9:40:43 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-Ba-B-C-C---cC-b-d-eB-----:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O X | +---+
> | X O O | | O X | | 2 |
> | X O | | O | +---+
> | O | | O |
> | | | O |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X X X |
> | O X | | X X O X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 131 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 54
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

I wonder what adage you're dying by here, attack a long checker? (esp when you have an advanced anchor, the opponent greatly outboarded and 10+ men in the zone?) I've never been a huge fan of that one without many stipulations. Or maybe when you're ahead in the race, race? I think that one often falls apart too when we're speaking of abandoning an advanced anchor and is too simplistic in terms of 'ahead'. Some people take that quite literally and don't realize that being ahead 4 pips is not the same as being ahead 24 pips which of course is not the same as being ahead 44 pips.

I know one adage that rarely steers me wrong personally ... Stick 4.13.16

Re: Live by adages, die by adages

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah...Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Live by adages, die by adages
Date: Wed, 15 Nov 2023 12:16:21 -0500
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 by: ah...Clem - Wed, 15 Nov 2023 17:16 UTC

On 11/14/2023 9:40 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-Ba-B-C-C---cC-b-d-eB-----:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X     O     O    |   | O  X             | +---+
>  | X     O     O    |   | O  X             | | 2 |
>  | X           O    |   | O                | +---+
>  |             O    |   | O                |
>  |                  |   | O                |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  | O           X    |   | X                |
>  | O           X    |   | X     X        X |
>  | O           X    |   | X     X     O  X |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 131  O: 144 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 54
>

X is ahead in the race by almost 20 pips so the prosaic 13/4 looks
sound. Running off the anchor seems rash. Blitzing with 13/8 6/2* also
looks playable, and Magriel's save v bold criteria says bold due to the
anchor and better board, but I'll just play for the race here and move 13/4.

Rollout: Live by adages, die by adages

<uj56f9$29lqo$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Live by adages, die by adages
Date: Thu, 16 Nov 2023 08:46:16 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 16 Nov 2023 13:46 UTC

XGID=-Ba-B-C-C---cC-b-d-eB-----:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X | +---+
| X O O | | O X | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 54

The "adage" I had in mind was Magriel's safe-bold criteria.

https://bkgm.com/gloss/lookup.cgi?magriels+safe+bold+criteria

Five out of six of the criteria point to a bold play. However,
the rollout below says the best play by far is the safe 13/4.

BlueDice suggested Michy's principle of playing safe at the advanced
stage. I do find that Michy's principle tends to work better than
Magriel's criteria in this sort of position. On the other hand, in
the two variants below, XG favors the bold, attacking hit. One has
to assess not only the general strategic principles that suggest
bold versus safe play, but how well positioned X is to execute a
successful attack. He has ten checkers in the zone and a three-
point board, but after 13/8 6/2* in the original position, he has
spares only on his 8pt, which mean that it's not so easy for him
to cover his blot even if missed, and he doesn't have that many
hitting rolls if O comes in.

1. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq:+0.221
Player: 60.73% (G:21.98% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 39.27% (G:5.91% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.212..+0.230) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/8 6/2* eq:+0.126 (-0.095)
Player: 57.59% (G:20.60% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 42.41% (G:6.21% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.117..+0.134) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 20/11 eq:+0.097 (-0.124)
Player: 57.40% (G:20.44% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 42.60% (G:9.76% B:0.43%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.088..+0.106) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/9 8/3 eq:+0.070 (-0.151)
Player: 55.63% (G:20.12% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 44.37% (G:6.51% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.060..+0.080) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=-Ba-B-D-B---cC-b-d-eB-----:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X | +---+
| X O O | | O X | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 129 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 54

1. Rollout¹ 13/8 6/2* eq:+0.240
Player: 60.53% (G:24.36% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 39.47% (G:5.75% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.231..+0.249) - [99.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq:+0.219 (-0.021)
Player: 60.65% (G:21.99% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 39.35% (G:6.05% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.210..+0.228) - [0.1%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=-B-aB-C-C---cC-b-d-eB-----:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X | +---+
| X O O | | O X | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

1. Rollout¹ 13/3* eq:+0.226
Player: 59.96% (G:24.73% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 40.04% (G:5.75% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.220..+0.232) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/2 6/2 eq:+0.207 (-0.019)
Player: 60.08% (G:21.86% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 39.92% (G:5.55% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.200..+0.213) - [0.0%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Live by adages, die by adages

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Live by adages, die by adages
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Tue, 21 Nov 2023 06:48 UTC

On Thursday, November 16, 2023 at 8:46:20 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-Ba-B-C-C---cC-b-d-eB-----:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O X | +---+
> | X O O | | O X | | 2 |
> | X O | | O | +---+
> | O | | O |
> | | | O |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X X X |
> | O X | | X X O X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 131 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 54
> The "adage" I had in mind was Magriel's safe-bold criteria.
>
> https://bkgm.com/gloss/lookup.cgi?magriels+safe+bold+criteria
>
> Five out of six of the criteria point to a bold play. However,
> the rollout below says the best play by far is the safe 13/4.
>
> BlueDice suggested Michy's principle of playing safe at the advanced
> stage. I do find that Michy's principle tends to work better than
> Magriel's criteria in this sort of position. On the other hand, in
> the two variants below, XG favors the bold, attacking hit. One has
> to assess not only the general strategic principles that suggest
> bold versus safe play, but how well positioned X is to execute a
> successful attack. He has ten checkers in the zone and a three-
> point board, but after 13/8 6/2* in the original position, he has
> spares only on his 8pt, which mean that it's not so easy for him
> to cover his blot even if missed, and he doesn't have that many
> hitting rolls if O comes in.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq:+0.221
> Player: 60.73% (G:21.98% B:0.24%)
> Opponent: 39.27% (G:5.91% B:0.25%)
> Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.212..+0.230) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 13/8 6/2* eq:+0.126 (-0.095)
> Player: 57.59% (G:20.60% B:0.24%)
> Opponent: 42.41% (G:6.21% B:0.26%)
> Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.117..+0.134) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 20/11 eq:+0.097 (-0.124)
> Player: 57.40% (G:20.44% B:0.42%)
> Opponent: 42.60% (G:9.76% B:0.43%)
> Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.088..+0.106) - [0.0%]
>
> 4. Rollout¹ 13/9 8/3 eq:+0.070 (-0.151)
> Player: 55.63% (G:20.12% B:0.24%)
> Opponent: 44.37% (G:6.51% B:0.30%)
> Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.060..+0.080) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> ---------
> Variant 1
> ---------
>
> XGID=-Ba-B-D-B---cC-b-d-eB-----:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O X | +---+
> | X O O | | O X | | 2 |
> | X O | | O | +---+
> | O | | O |
> | | | O |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | O | | X |
> | O X | | X X X |
> | O X | | X X O X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 129 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 54
> 1. Rollout¹ 13/8 6/2* eq:+0.240
> Player: 60.53% (G:24.36% B:0.27%)
> Opponent: 39.47% (G:5.75% B:0.28%)
> Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.231..+0.249) - [99.9%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq:+0.219 (-0.021)
> Player: 60.65% (G:21.99% B:0.22%)
> Opponent: 39.35% (G:6.05% B:0.26%)
> Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.210..+0.228) - [0.1%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> ---------
> Variant 2
> ---------
>
> XGID=-B-aB-C-C---cC-b-d-eB-----:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O X | +---+
> | X O O | | O X | | 2 |
> | X O | | O | +---+
> | O | | O |
> | | | O |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X X X |
> | O X | | X X O X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 131 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 64
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 13/3* eq:+0.226
> Player: 59.96% (G:24.73% B:0.22%)
> Opponent: 40.04% (G:5.75% B:0.28%)
> Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.220..+0.232) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 8/2 6/2 eq:+0.207 (-0.019)
> Player: 60.08% (G:21.86% B:0.17%)
> Opponent: 39.92% (G:5.55% B:0.26%)
> Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.200..+0.213) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

I'm not a fan of Magriel's safe/bold criteria as given in the link. One can make major improvements to it and make it work a lot better.

Stick

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Rollout: Live by adages, die by adages

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