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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Boxcars 2

SubjectAuthor
* Boxcars 2Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Boxcars 2Timothy Chow

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Boxcars 2

<ujih44$sd5s$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Boxcars 2
Date: Tue, 21 Nov 2023 10:07:48 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 21 Nov 2023 15:07 UTC

XGID=-a-BB-D-A---cD-b-b-cbbB---:0:0:1:66:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 135 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 66

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Boxcars 2

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Boxcars 2
Date: Thu, 23 Nov 2023 14:23:31 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 23 Nov 2023 19:23 UTC

XGID=-a-BB-D-A---cD-b-b-cbbB---:0:0:1:66:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 135 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 66

Attacking with 13/1*(2) is the wrong idea here; this is a golden
opportunity to escape our back checkers. But do we run all the way
with 22/10(2) or do we make the bar point with 22/16(2) 13/7(2)?
I opted to make the bar point, but XG says that's a whopper. The
trouble is that 22/16(2) 13/7(2) doesn't do all that good a job of
containing O's straggler, and still leaves us with the task of
clearing our 16pt later on.

1. Rollout¹ 22/10(2) eq:+0.629
Player: 66.64% (G:8.52% B:0.11%)
Opponent: 33.36% (G:4.13% B:0.11%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.619..+0.638) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 22/16(2) 13/7(2) eq:+0.507 (-0.122)
Player: 63.71% (G:12.46% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 36.29% (G:7.10% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.495..+0.518) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=-a--BBD-A---cD-b-b-cbbB---:0:0:1:66:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 135 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 66

1. Rollout¹ 22/16(2) 13/7(2) eq:+0.663
Player: 67.22% (G:12.67% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 32.78% (G:5.99% B:0.24%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.649..+0.677) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 22/10(2) eq:+0.621 (-0.041)
Player: 66.69% (G:7.65% B:0.11%)
Opponent: 33.31% (G:3.33% B:0.08%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.611..+0.632) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=-b-BB-D-A---bD-b-b-cbbB---:0:0:1:66:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X O |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 66

1. Rollout¹ 22/16(2) 13/7(2) eq:+0.839
Player: 70.10% (G:16.74% B:0.67%)
Opponent: 29.90% (G:7.40% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.829..+0.849) - [94.5%]

2. Rollout¹ 22/10(2) eq:+0.829 (-0.010)
Player: 70.87% (G:12.63% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 29.13% (G:5.15% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.821..+0.836) - [5.5%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Boxcars 2

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