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interests / rec.games.backgammon / 5pt or hit?

5pt or hit?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 5pt or hit?
Date: Thu, 23 Nov 2023 14:25:11 -0500
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by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 23 Nov 2023 19:25 UTC

XGID=-b----E-C--AcDa--c-dbA--A-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 162 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: 5pt or hit?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 5pt or hit?
Date: Sat, 25 Nov 2023 21:08:58 -0500
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by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 26 Nov 2023 02:08 UTC

XGID=-b----E-C--AcDa--c-dbA--A-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

Making the 5pt and hitting in the opponent's outfield are both very
strong plays in general, so the choice between them is not always
clear. Here, O's blot is not directly threatening X's blot, and in a
blot-hitting contest, X is outboarded. For comparison, see the
variants below.

1. Rollout¹ 11/5 6/5 eq:-0.065
Player: 48.69% (G:14.40% B:0.84%)
Opponent: 51.31% (G:17.09% B:0.74%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.081..-0.050) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 21/14* eq:-0.152 (-0.087)
Player: 47.28% (G:11.75% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 52.72% (G:17.61% B:0.76%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.166..-0.138) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=-b----E-C--AcD-a-c-dbA--A-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

1. Rollout¹ 21/15* 11/10 eq:-0.155
Player: 47.22% (G:12.26% B:0.70%)
Opponent: 52.78% (G:17.78% B:0.82%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.163..-0.148) - [62.4%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/5 6/5 eq:-0.159 (-0.003)
Player: 47.02% (G:14.21% B:0.79%)
Opponent: 52.98% (G:19.21% B:0.77%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.167..-0.151) - [21.5%]

3. Rollout¹ 21/15* 15/14 eq:-0.160 (-0.004)
Player: 47.16% (G:11.95% B:0.68%)
Opponent: 52.84% (G:17.82% B:0.77%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.168..-0.152) - [16.1%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------
XGID=-a--a-E-C--AcDa--c-dbA--A-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 162 O: 153 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

1. Rollout¹ 11/5 6/5 eq:-0.219
Player: 45.35% (G:11.44% B:0.61%)
Opponent: 54.65% (G:16.43% B:0.66%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.231..-0.206) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 21/14* eq:-0.255 (-0.036)
Player: 45.06% (G:10.01% B:0.47%)
Opponent: 54.94% (G:17.87% B:0.69%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.272..-0.238) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: 5pt or hit?

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Subject: Re: Rollout: 5pt or hit?
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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by: Stick Rice - Tue, 28 Nov 2023 22:47 UTC

On Saturday, November 25, 2023 at 9:09:05 PM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-b----E-C--AcDa--c-dbA--A-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O X X |
> | X O | | O O |
> | X O | | O |
> | X | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X O |
> | O X X | | X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 162 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 61
> Making the 5pt and hitting in the opponent's outfield are both very
> strong plays in general, so the choice between them is not always
> clear. Here, O's blot is not directly threatening X's blot, and in a
> blot-hitting contest, X is outboarded. For comparison, see the
> variants below.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 11/5 6/5 eq:-0.065
> Player: 48.69% (G:14.40% B:0.84%)
> Opponent: 51.31% (G:17.09% B:0.74%)
> Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.081..-0.050) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 21/14* eq:-0.152 (-0.087)
> Player: 47.28% (G:11.75% B:0.66%)
> Opponent: 52.72% (G:17.61% B:0.76%)
> Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.166..-0.138) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> ---------
> Variant 1
> ---------
>
> XGID=-b----E-C--AcD-a-c-dbA--A-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O X X |
> | X O | | O O |
> | X O | | O |
> | X | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X O |
> | O X X | | X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 162 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 61
> 1. Rollout¹ 21/15* 11/10 eq:-0.155
> Player: 47.22% (G:12.26% B:0.70%)
> Opponent: 52.78% (G:17.78% B:0.82%)
> Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.163..-0.148) - [62.4%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 11/5 6/5 eq:-0.159 (-0.003)
> Player: 47.02% (G:14.21% B:0.79%)
> Opponent: 52.98% (G:19.21% B:0.77%)
> Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.167..-0.151) - [21.5%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 21/15* 15/14 eq:-0.160 (-0.004)
> Player: 47.16% (G:11.95% B:0.68%)
> Opponent: 52.84% (G:17.82% B:0.77%)
> Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.168..-0.152) - [16.1%]
>
> ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> ---------
> Variant 2
> ---------
> XGID=-a--a-E-C--AcDa--c-dbA--A-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O X X |
> | X O | | O O |
> | X O | | O |
> | X | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X X | | X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 162 O: 153 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 61
> 1. Rollout¹ 11/5 6/5 eq:-0.219
> Player: 45.35% (G:11.44% B:0.61%)
> Opponent: 54.65% (G:16.43% B:0.66%)
> Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.231..-0.206) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 21/14* eq:-0.255 (-0.036)
> Player: 45.06% (G:10.01% B:0.47%)
> Opponent: 54.94% (G:17.87% B:0.69%)
> Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.272..-0.238) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

The most obvious variant for me would be rolling a spare from the opp's 6pt to his 5pt in the original position. Making the 5pt remains on top by ~.035.

Stick

Subject	Author
5pt or hit?	Timothy Chow
Rollout: 5pt or hit?	Timothy Chow
Re: Rollout: 5pt or hit?	Stick Rice