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interests / rec.games.backgammon / 4-away/7-away recube action

SubjectAuthor
* 4-away/7-away recube actionTimothy Chow
`* Rollout: 4-away/7-away recube actionTimothy Chow
 `- Re: Rollout: 4-away/7-away recube actionStick Rice

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4-away/7-away recube action

<uk4ukn$adno$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 4-away/7-away recube action
Date: Tue, 28 Nov 2023 09:48:56 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 28 Nov 2023 14:48 UTC

XGID=-CDaCC-a-B----------bcbbd-:1:1:1:00:3:0:0:7:10

Score is X:3 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X X X | +---+
| X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X O | | X X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 56 O: 76 X-O: 3-0/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: 4-away/7-away recube action

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 4-away/7-away recube action
Date: Fri, 1 Dec 2023 08:51:22 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 1 Dec 2023 13:51 UTC

XGID=-CDaCC-a-B----------bcbbd-:1:1:1:00:3:0:0:7:10

Score is X:3 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X X X | +---+
| X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X O | | X X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 56 O: 76 X-O: 3-0/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

I'm always nervous about redoubling to 4 when ahead in the match and
gammons are still possible. However, gammon *losses* are negligible
in this position, and according to XG, this cube fits squarely within
the doubling window.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 82.59% (G:6.77% B:0.10%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 17.41% (G:0.83% B:0.01%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 82.73% (G:5.70% B:0.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 17.27% (G:0.49% B:0.00%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.785 (-0.102)
Redouble/Take: +0.887
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.113)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.003 (+0.782..+0.788)
Confidence Double: ± 0.006 (+0.882..+0.893)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: 4-away/7-away recube action

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Subject: Re: Rollout: 4-away/7-away recube action
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Fri, 1 Dec 2023 15:12 UTC

On Friday, December 1, 2023 at 8:51:26 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-CDaCC-a-B----------bcbbd-:1:1:1:00:3:0:0:7:10
>
> Score is X:3 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | | | O O O O O |
> | | | O O O O O |
> | | | O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | | | X X X X | +---+
> | X | | X X X X | | 2 |
> | X O | | X X O X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 56 O: 76 X-O: 3-0/7
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X on roll, cube action
> I'm always nervous about redoubling to 4 when ahead in the match and
> gammons are still possible. However, gammon *losses* are negligible
> in this position, and according to XG, this cube fits squarely within
> the doubling window.
>
> Analyzed in Rollout
> No redouble
> Player Winning Chances: 82.59% (G:6.77% B:0.10%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 17.41% (G:0.83% B:0.01%)
> Redouble/Take
> Player Winning Chances: 82.73% (G:5.70% B:0.03%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 17.27% (G:0.49% B:0.00%)
>
> Cubeful Equities:
> No redouble: +0.785 (-0.102)
> Redouble/Take: +0.887
> Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.113)
>
> Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
>
> Rollout:
> 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> Confidence No Double: ± 0.003 (+0.782..+0.788)
> Confidence Double: ± 0.006 (+0.882..+0.893)
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

I'm confused. Why do you care about gammon losses when the cube will be worth than the value of the match for both players?

Stick

interests / rec.games.backgammon / 4-away/7-away recube action

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