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Advance the anchor to the bar point?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Advance the anchor to the bar point?
Date: Thu, 30 Nov 2023 08:48:06 -0500
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by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 30 Nov 2023 13:48 UTC

XGID=----BBD-B---bB---c-dc-Cab-:1:1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| O | | O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X X | | 2 |
| O X | | X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 150 O: 93 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 44

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Advance the anchor to the bar point?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Advance the anchor to the bar point?
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by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 3 Dec 2023 14:41 UTC

XGID=----BBD-B---bB---c-dc-Cab-:1:1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

Advancing the anchor to the bar point will give X better chances of
getting and hitting a shot on O's midpoint, but X still has play
against O's 8pt. Advancing to the bar point now would give O many
turns to dump into her board while waiting for doublets to clear
her midpoint and lock up the game.

1. Rollout¹ 22/14 6/2(2) eq:-0.312
Player: 32.44% (G:3.94% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 67.56% (G:10.64% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.319..-0.305) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 22/10 6/2 eq:-0.328 (-0.015)
Player: 31.25% (G:3.93% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 68.75% (G:9.05% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.333..-0.322) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 22/10 8/4 eq:-0.341 (-0.029)
Player: 30.58% (G:3.56% B:0.13%)
Opponent: 69.42% (G:8.61% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.347..-0.335) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 22/18(3) 6/2 eq:-0.424 (-0.112)
Player: 25.92% (G:2.80% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 74.08% (G:5.55% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.430..-0.418) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 22/18(2) 6/2(2) eq:-0.496 (-0.184)
Player: 30.08% (G:5.12% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 69.92% (G:26.14% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.503..-0.489) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Subject	Author
Advance the anchor to the bar point?	Timothy Chow
Rollout: Advance the anchor to the bar point?	Timothy Chow