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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Which hit?

Which hit?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Which hit?
Date: Wed, 13 Dec 2023 09:50:07 -0500
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by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 13 Dec 2023 14:50 UTC

XGID=---a-BDaB-B-bCA--c-bc-c-A-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X O | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 21

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Which hit?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Which hit?
Date: Fri, 15 Dec 2023 09:40:09 -0500
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by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 15 Dec 2023 14:40 UTC

XGID=---a-BDaB-B-bCA--c-bc-c-A-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

I opted for 8/7*/5 to try to reduce my blot count, but it's about
the same number of return shots either way and my 8pt is a valuable
asset in this position.

1. Rollout¹ 10/7* eq:-0.215
Player: 47.29% (G:13.13% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 52.71% (G:26.13% B:2.35%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.230..-0.199) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/3* eq:-0.312 (-0.098)
Player: 44.57% (G:12.86% B:0.70%)
Opponent: 55.43% (G:25.71% B:1.56%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.327..-0.297) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/7* 7/5 eq:-0.316 (-0.101)
Player: 44.02% (G:12.81% B:0.63%)
Opponent: 55.98% (G:26.78% B:1.70%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.331..-0.300) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Subject	Author
Which hit?	Timothy Chow
Rollout: Which hit?	Timothy Chow