I remember discussing on this forum how 31 against an opponent with a
free drop is generally too good. I also remember Tim saying that the
opponent needs an excellent reply for us to gain market.
However, here I erred by playing on. It's a smallish error by my standards
but not by my standards for this particular match where I played at
a PR of 4.14.
I think that Tim was talking about 2A 1A rather than many even away.
I would be surprised if Tim failed to double here.

Paul

XGID=-a---BD-B--aeE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:3:10:0:11:10

X:Daniel O:XG Roller+
Score is X:3 O:10 11 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| |BAR| |
| O | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O O X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 163 O: 157 X-O: 3-10/11
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 56.66% (G:18.18% B:0.63%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 43.34% (G:9.60% B:0.43%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.339, Double=+1.216

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.962 (-0.038)
Double/Take: +1.216 (+0.216)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

On Sunday, December 17, 2023 at 11:31:20 PM UTC, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> I remember discussing on this forum how 31 against an opponent with a
> free drop is generally too good. I also remember Tim saying that the
> opponent needs an excellent reply for us to gain market.
> However, here I erred by playing on. It's a smallish error by my standards
> but not by my standards for this particular match where I played at
> a PR of 4.14.
> I think that Tim was talking about 2A 1A rather than many even away.
> I would be surprised if Tim failed to double here.
>
> Paul
>
> XGID=-a---BD-B--aeE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:3:10:0:11:10
>
> X:Daniel O:XG Roller+
> Score is X:3 O:10 11 pt.(s) match.
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O X |
> | X O | | O X |
> | X O | | O |
> | X | | O |
> | X | | O |
> | |BAR| |
> | O | | |
> | O | | X |
> | O | | X |
> | O X | | X X |
> | O O X | | X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 163 O: 157 X-O: 3-10/11
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action
>
> Analyzed in XG Roller+
> Player Winning Chances: 56.66% (G:18.18% B:0.63%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 43.34% (G:9.60% B:0.43%)
>
> Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.339, Double=+1.216
>
> Cubeful Equities:
> No double: +0.962 (-0.038)
> Double/Take: +1.216 (+0.216)
> Double/Pass: +1.000
>
> Best Cube action: Double / Pass
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Correction -- "an excellent reply for us to gain market"
should be "an excellent reply for us to cube".
[But I think the context was 2A 1A and that Tim was
correct in this context.]

Paul

On 12/17/2023 6:33 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> Correction -- "an excellent reply for us to gain market"
> should be "an excellent reply for us to cube".
> [But I think the context was 2A 1A and that Tim was
> correct in this context.]

I'd be pretty surprised if you could find a quote from me that
an opening roll of 31 at 2a1a usually leaves us too good, because
I don't recall ever believing that. (That an opening roll of 31
at 2a1a usually loses our market, sure. It also usually loses our
market at 4a1a, 6a1a, etc.) I've known for a while that it leaves
us too good after the opponent's weakest rolls, such as 63 or 62,
but I wouldn't claim to know all the rolls after which we're TG.

---
Tim Chow

On Tuesday, December 19, 2023 at 1:59:03 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:
> On 12/17/2023 6:33 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > Correction -- "an excellent reply for us to gain market"
> > should be "an excellent reply for us to cube".
> > [But I think the context was 2A 1A and that Tim was
> > correct in this context.]
> I'd be pretty surprised if you could find a quote from me that
> an opening roll of 31 at 2a1a usually leaves us too good, because
> I don't recall ever believing that. (That an opening roll of 31
> at 2a1a usually loses our market, sure. It also usually loses our
> market at 4a1a, 6a1a, etc.) I've known for a while that it leaves
> us too good after the opponent's weakest rolls, such as 63 or 62,
> but I wouldn't claim to know all the rolls after which we're TG.
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

It's very possible that I misremembered you. I think you may have said
(in response to my question) that at 2A 1A post-Crawford, if the trailer
starts with a 31, the trailer is match favourite -- the too-good possibility
outweighs the market-gaining possibility.

Anyway, I'm sure that whatever you said was correct.

Paul