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interests / rec.games.backgammon / 7-away/4-away recube action

SubjectAuthor
* 7-away/4-away recube actionTimothy Chow
`- Rollout: 7-away/4-away recube actionTimothy Chow

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7-away/4-away recube action

<umrubm$1omge$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 7-away/4-away recube action
Date: Sun, 31 Dec 2023 09:37:43 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 31 Dec 2023 14:37 UTC

XGID=---ABBBA--------bb-bbDCeb-:1:1:1:00:0:3:0:7:10

Score is X:0 O:3 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O X X O O |
| O O | | O O X X O O |
| | | X X O |
| | | X O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 190 O: 68 X-O: 0-3/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: 7-away/4-away recube action

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 7-away/4-away recube action
Date: Tue, 2 Jan 2024 22:33:35 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 3 Jan 2024 03:33 UTC

XGID=---ABBBA--------bb-bbDCeb-:1:1:1:00:0:3:0:7:10

Score is X:0 O:3 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O X X O O |
| O O | | O O X X O O |
| | | X X O |
| | | X O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 190 O: 68 X-O: 0-3/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

I knew that at 7a4a, I should be quick with the recube, but it didn't
occur to me that I had a lot of market losers here. It's not so much
that X is threatening to roll something good, as O is threatening to
roll something bad. For example, if X rolls something like 53 and
plays 21/13, then XG says that O has to pass if she rolls 5x (or 61
or 64). Still seems surprising to me.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 56.39% (G:13.69% B:0.68%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 43.61% (G:34.28% B:3.72%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 56.71% (G:14.13% B:0.98%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 43.29% (G:35.04% B:3.33%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.567 (-0.146)
Redouble/Take: +0.713
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.287)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+0.554..+0.580)
Confidence Double: ± 0.020 (+0.693..+0.732)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

interests / rec.games.backgammon / 7-away/4-away recube action

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