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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Action double

SubjectAuthor
* Action doubleTimothy Chow
`- Rollout: Action doubleTimothy Chow

1
Action double

<un6f88$3m4hi$4@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Action double
Date: Thu, 4 Jan 2024 09:27:20 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 4 Jan 2024 14:27 UTC

XGID=-b-C-CE--A-Aa-a-Acbdb---A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X O O | | O O X |
| O O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X X X |
| | | X X X O |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 114 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Action double

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Action double
Date: Sat, 6 Jan 2024 17:18:02 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 6 Jan 2024 22:18 UTC

XGID=-b-C-CE--A-Aa-a-Acbdb---A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X O O | | O O X |
| O O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X X X |
| | | X X X O |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 114 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Here I overestimated the potency of my hitting rolls. According to
the XG rollout below, even after a favorable exchange such as rolling
43 (played 24/21 16/12*) followed by a dance, X doesn't lose his market.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 50.99% (G:20.73% B:2.26%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 49.01% (G:9.95% B:0.55%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 50.80% (G:20.74% B:2.28%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 49.20% (G:9.97% B:0.57%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.156
Double/Take: -0.135 (-0.290)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.844)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 25.6%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.015 (+0.141..+0.170)
Confidence Double: ± 0.020 (-0.155..-0.114)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------------------------
After 24/21 16/12*, dance
-------------------------

XGID=ab-C-CE--A-AA-a--cbdbA----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O X |
| O O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | X |
| | | X |
| | | X X X |
| | | X X X O |
| X X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 107 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 65.82% (G:30.09% B:3.76%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.18% (G:4.24% B:0.21%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.94% (G:30.25% B:4.15%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.06% (G:4.36% B:0.23%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.801 (-0.097)
Double/Take: +0.898
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.102)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.012 (+0.790..+0.813)
Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+0.879..+0.917)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Action double

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