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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Double 2's to play

SubjectAuthor
* Double 2's to playTimothy Chow
`- Rollout: Double 2's to playTimothy Chow

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Double 2's to play

<unjjcl$218m5$3@dont-email.me>

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!feeder3.eternal-september.org!news.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Double 2's to play
Date: Tue, 9 Jan 2024 08:57:40 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 9 Jan 2024 13:57 UTC

XGID=---cBCC--C--cB---b-cAAb-b-:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X X O O | +---+
| X O | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X | | X X X O |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 22

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Double 2's to play

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Double 2's to play
Date: Thu, 11 Jan 2024 23:12:29 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 12 Jan 2024 04:12 UTC

XGID=---cBCC--C--cB---b-cAAb-b-:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X X O O | +---+
| X O | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X | | X X X O |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 22

Since X is ahead in the pip count, priming didn't seem to me to be the
right game plan. But other than making the bar point, there isn't really
anything particularly constructive to do. Given that X can't clean up
his blots, making a broken five-prime at least interferes with the
possibility that O might attack, and escape her back checkers easily
while we're on the bar.

In the variant, X is anchored, and racing is a more viable game plan,
although XG still favors making the bar point.

1. Rollout¹ 13/7 9/7 eq:+0.329
Player: 67.45% (G:19.49% B:0.93%)
Opponent: 32.55% (G:9.97% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.320..+0.339) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/14 6/4 eq:+0.228 (-0.101)
Player: 65.02% (G:16.80% B:0.73%)
Opponent: 34.98% (G:11.46% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.220..+0.236) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 20/16 13/11(2) eq:+0.221 (-0.108)
Player: 64.69% (G:17.57% B:0.83%)
Opponent: 35.31% (G:11.91% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.213..+0.230) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 20/16 9/5 eq:+0.207 (-0.122)
Player: 64.33% (G:17.08% B:0.72%)
Opponent: 35.67% (G:11.93% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.197..+0.217) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 9/7(3) 6/4 eq:+0.194 (-0.135)
Player: 63.00% (G:18.42% B:0.79%)
Opponent: 37.00% (G:11.65% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.185..+0.203) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 9/7(2) 9/5 eq:+0.194 (-0.135)
Player: 62.66% (G:18.57% B:0.90%)
Opponent: 37.34% (G:11.02% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.185..+0.202) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=---cBCC--C--cB---b-cB-b-b-:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O O | +---+
| X O | | O X O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X | | X X X O |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 22

1. Rollout¹ 13/7 9/7 eq:+0.464
Player: 72.83% (G:14.65% B:0.56%)
Opponent: 27.17% (G:4.63% B:0.11%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.457..+0.471) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/16(2) eq:+0.427 (-0.038)
Player: 72.89% (G:9.86% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 27.11% (G:4.19% B:0.09%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.420..+0.433) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Double 2's to play

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