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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Yes, I know it's a double!

SubjectAuthor
* Yes, I know it's a double!peps...@gmail.com
`* Re: Yes, I know it's a double!Timothy Chow
 +* Re: Yes, I know it's a double!Stick Rice
 |`* Re: Yes, I know it's a double!peps...@gmail.com
 | `- Re: Yes, I know it's a double!Stick Rice
 `- Re: Yes, I know it's a double!peps...@gmail.com

1
Yes, I know it's a double!

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Subject: Yes, I know it's a double!
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Wed, 10 Jan 2024 21:38 UTC

But should I take?
For a bonus, do you think I did take?
For a free bonus, I did actually roll this out.
I know I have a really annoying habit of posting
about positions with no rollout but I saved the
rollout for this one.

Paul

XGID=aECEA-------a--b-cbccA----:1:-1:-1:00:3:2:0:11:10
X:XG Roller+ O:Daniel

Score is X:2 O:3 11 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | X | O O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X | +---+
| X X X | | X X | | 2 |
| X X X | | X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 129 O: 51 X-O: 2-3/11
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Re: Yes, I know it's a double!

<unnlts$2rlfl$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Yes, I know it's a double!
Date: Wed, 10 Jan 2024 22:05:27 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 11 Jan 2024 03:05 UTC

On 1/10/2024 4:38 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> XGID=aECEA-------a--b-cbccA----:1:-1:-1:00:3:2:0:11:10
> X:XG Roller+ O:Daniel
>
> Score is X:2 O:3 11 pt.(s) match.
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X | | O O O O |
> | | | O O O |
> | | | O O O |
> | | | O O |
> | | X | O O |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | X | | X X | +---+
> | X X X | | X X | | 2 |
> | X X X | | X X O | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 129 O: 51 X-O: 2-3/11
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X on roll, cube action

I'd pass this one. The leader should be cautious about taking redoubles
to 4 when losing a gammon is still a possibility. O's gammon loss rate
is not super high here, but I don't think it's negligible, and it's
also not that easy for O to win from here. Even if X dances, O is still
in trouble unless O rolls an immediate 5.

---
Tim Chow

Re: Yes, I know it's a double!

<cd3a7300-4811-4759-bb39-b2febe480139n@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: Yes, I know it's a double!
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Thu, 11 Jan 2024 23:10 UTC

On Wednesday, January 10, 2024 at 10:05:34 PM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
> On 1/10/2024 4:38 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > XGID=aECEA-------a--b-cbccA----:1:-1:-1:00:3:2:0:11:10
> > X:XG Roller+ O:Daniel
> >
> > Score is X:2 O:3 11 pt.(s) match.
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X | | O O O O |
> > | | | O O O |
> > | | | O O O |
> > | | | O O |
> > | | X | O O |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | X | | X X | +---+
> > | X X X | | X X | | 2 |
> > | X X X | | X X O | +---+
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 129 O: 51 X-O: 2-3/11
> > Cube: 2, X own cube
> > X on roll, cube action
> I'd pass this one. The leader should be cautious about taking redoubles
> to 4 when losing a gammon is still a possibility. O's gammon loss rate
> is not super high here, but I don't think it's negligible, and it's
> also not that easy for O to win from here. Even if X dances, O is still
> in trouble unless O rolls an immediate 5.
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

The net gammons here have to be super negligible. While your advice about taking recubes when losing a gammon is still a possibility is practically sound advice in general, I don't think it really applies here. The gammons are negligible, each player can use all 8 points, the take point on a recube is around that of a normal match score, etc...

As for what Paul should do OtB, enough information wasn't supplied to answer that question. Specifically who or what is your opponent for eg and what is the setting?

Stick

Re: Yes, I know it's a double!

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Subject: Re: Yes, I know it's a double!
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Fri, 12 Jan 2024 20:34 UTC

On Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 11:10:39 PM UTC, Stick Rice wrote:
> On Wednesday, January 10, 2024 at 10:05:34 PM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
> > On 1/10/2024 4:38 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > > XGID=aECEA-------a--b-cbccA----:1:-1:-1:00:3:2:0:11:10
> > > X:XG Roller+ O:Daniel
> > >
> > > Score is X:2 O:3 11 pt.(s) match.
> > > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > > | X | | O O O O |
> > > | | | O O O |
> > > | | | O O O |
> > > | | | O O |
> > > | | X | O O |
> > > | |BAR| |
> > > | | | |
> > > | | | |
> > > | X | | X X | +---+
> > > | X X X | | X X | | 2 |
> > > | X X X | | X X O | +---+
> > > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > > Pip count X: 129 O: 51 X-O: 2-3/11
> > > Cube: 2, X own cube
> > > X on roll, cube action
> > I'd pass this one. The leader should be cautious about taking redoubles
> > to 4 when losing a gammon is still a possibility. O's gammon loss rate
> > is not super high here, but I don't think it's negligible, and it's
> > also not that easy for O to win from here. Even if X dances, O is still
> > in trouble unless O rolls an immediate 5.
> >
> > ---
> > Tim Chow
> The net gammons here have to be super negligible. While your advice about taking recubes when losing a gammon is still a possibility is practically sound advice in general, I don't think it really applies here. The gammons are negligible, each player can use all 8 points, the take point on a recube is around that of a normal match score, etc...
>
> As for what Paul should do OtB, enough information wasn't supplied to answer that question. Specifically who or what is your opponent for eg and what is the setting?
>
> Stick

Thanks for your very interesting feedback but opponent and setting are given in the question.
I am "Daniel".

Paul

Re: Yes, I know it's a double!

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Subject: Re: Yes, I know it's a double!
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Fri, 12 Jan 2024 20:37 UTC

On Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 3:05:34 AM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:
> On 1/10/2024 4:38 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > XGID=aECEA-------a--b-cbccA----:1:-1:-1:00:3:2:0:11:10
> > X:XG Roller+ O:Daniel
> >
> > Score is X:2 O:3 11 pt.(s) match.
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X | | O O O O |
> > | | | O O O |
> > | | | O O O |
> > | | | O O |
> > | | X | O O |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | X | | X X | +---+
> > | X X X | | X X | | 2 |
> > | X X X | | X X O | +---+
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 129 O: 51 X-O: 2-3/11
> > Cube: 2, X own cube
> > X on roll, cube action
> I'd pass this one. The leader should be cautious about taking redoubles
> to 4 when losing a gammon is still a possibility. O's gammon loss rate
> is not super high here, but I don't think it's negligible, and it's
> also not that easy for O to win from here. Even if X dances, O is still
> in trouble unless O rolls an immediate 5.

I posted the position because I thought the pass was obvious and was incredulous
that the analysis dinged my pass as a significant error -- the analysis came out as a 0.95 take.
So I rolled it out, expecting to get vindicated which I did as below.
However, I did not expect the pass to be as marginal as it is.

Paul

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 72.58% (G:11.38% B:0.30%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.42% (G:7.74% B:0.12%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.93% (G:11.52% B:0.30%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.07% (G:8.24% B:0.18%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.496, Double=+1.123

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.780 (-0.220)
Redouble/Take: +1.049 (+0.049)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.774..+0.786)
Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+1.038..+1.060)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

Duration: 2 minutes 33 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Re: Yes, I know it's a double!

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Subject: Re: Yes, I know it's a double!
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Sat, 13 Jan 2024 00:42 UTC

On Friday, January 12, 2024 at 3:34:18 PM UTC-5, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 11:10:39 PM UTC, Stick Rice wrote:
> > On Wednesday, January 10, 2024 at 10:05:34 PM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
> > > On 1/10/2024 4:38 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > > > XGID=aECEA-------a--b-cbccA----:1:-1:-1:00:3:2:0:11:10
> > > > X:XG Roller+ O:Daniel
> > > >
> > > > Score is X:2 O:3 11 pt.(s) match.
> > > > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > > > | X | | O O O O |
> > > > | | | O O O |
> > > > | | | O O O |
> > > > | | | O O |
> > > > | | X | O O |
> > > > | |BAR| |
> > > > | | | |
> > > > | | | |
> > > > | X | | X X | +---+
> > > > | X X X | | X X | | 2 |
> > > > | X X X | | X X O | +---+
> > > > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > > > Pip count X: 129 O: 51 X-O: 2-3/11
> > > > Cube: 2, X own cube
> > > > X on roll, cube action
> > > I'd pass this one. The leader should be cautious about taking redoubles
> > > to 4 when losing a gammon is still a possibility. O's gammon loss rate
> > > is not super high here, but I don't think it's negligible, and it's
> > > also not that easy for O to win from here. Even if X dances, O is still
> > > in trouble unless O rolls an immediate 5.
> > >
> > > ---
> > > Tim Chow
> > The net gammons here have to be super negligible. While your advice about taking recubes when losing a gammon is still a possibility is practically sound advice in general, I don't think it really applies here. The gammons are negligible, each player can use all 8 points, the take point on a recube is around that of a normal match score, etc...
> >
> > As for what Paul should do OtB, enough information wasn't supplied to answer that question. Specifically who or what is your opponent for eg and what is the setting?
> >
> > Stick
> Thanks for your very interesting feedback but opponent and setting are given in the question.
> I am "Daniel".
>
> Paul

The setting is not given at all. As for the opponent, if I posted a diagram here it would be Grant v. Harvey so I can't very well take who the players are at face value.

Stick

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Yes, I know it's a double!

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rocksolid light 0.9.81
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