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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Rollout: Blitz versus prime

SubjectAuthor
* Blitz versus primeTimothy Chow
`* Rollout: Blitz versus primeTimothy Chow
 `- Re: Rollout: Blitz versus primeStick Rice

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Blitz versus prime

<uo617f$1fb5o$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Blitz versus prime
Date: Tue, 16 Jan 2024 08:44:15 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 16 Jan 2024 13:44 UTC

XGID=aB-aaBCAE--------ccdb-A-A-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O X X |
| O O | | O O |
| O O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| X | O | |
| X | | |
| X | | X | +---+
| X | | X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X O O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 123 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Blitz versus prime

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Blitz versus prime
Date: Thu, 18 Jan 2024 08:38:46 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 18 Jan 2024 13:38 UTC

XGID=aB-aaBCAE--------ccdb-A-A-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O X X |
| O O | | O O |
| O O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| X | O | |
| X | | |
| X | | X | +---+
| X | | X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X O O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 123 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52

This is another position where X has to decide whether to go all out
with the blitz, or whether he needs to step up his back checker so
that it sees daylight. XG says to go all out, but see the variant.

1. Rollout¹ 8/3* 6/4* eq:+0.472
Player: 56.30% (G:32.70% B:1.29%)
Opponent: 43.70% (G:14.15% B:1.20%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (+0.454..+0.489) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/22 8/3* eq:+0.381 (-0.091)
Player: 53.72% (G:25.95% B:0.90%)
Opponent: 46.28% (G:11.61% B:0.55%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.367..+0.395) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=aB-aaBCAE--------ccdb--AA-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O X X |
| O O | | O O |
| O O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| X | O | |
| X | | |
| X | | X | +---+
| X | | X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X O O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 124 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52

1. Rollout¹ 23/21 8/3* eq:+0.410
Player: 53.90% (G:26.91% B:0.94%)
Opponent: 46.10% (G:13.17% B:0.94%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.402..+0.418) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/3* 6/4* eq:+0.373 (-0.037)
Player: 52.08% (G:29.54% B:1.20%)
Opponent: 47.92% (G:15.89% B:1.32%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.364..+0.382) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Blitz versus prime

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Blitz versus prime
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Thu, 18 Jan 2024 20:31 UTC

On Thursday, January 18, 2024 at 8:38:49 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=aB-aaBCAE--------ccdb-A-A-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O O | | O O X X |
> | O O | | O O |
> | O O | | O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | X | O | |
> | X | | |
> | X | | X | +---+
> | X | | X X X | | 2 |
> | X X | | X X O O X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 123 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X to play 52
> This is another position where X has to decide whether to go all out
> with the blitz, or whether he needs to step up his back checker so
> that it sees daylight. XG says to go all out, but see the variant.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 8/3* 6/4* eq:+0.472
> Player: 56.30% (G:32.70% B:1.29%)
> Opponent: 43.70% (G:14.15% B:1.20%)
> Confidence: ±0.017 (+0.454..+0.489) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 24/22 8/3* eq:+0.381 (-0.091)
> Player: 53.72% (G:25.95% B:0.90%)
> Opponent: 46.28% (G:11.61% B:0.55%)
> Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.367..+0.395) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> -------
> Variant
> -------
>
> XGID=aB-aaBCAE--------ccdb--AA-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O O | | O O X X |
> | O O | | O O |
> | O O | | O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | X | O | |
> | X | | |
> | X | | X | +---+
> | X | | X X X | | 2 |
> | X X | | X X O O X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 124 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X to play 52
> 1. Rollout¹ 23/21 8/3* eq:+0.410
> Player: 53.90% (G:26.91% B:0.94%)
> Opponent: 46.10% (G:13.17% B:0.94%)
> Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.402..+0.418) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 8/3* 6/4* eq:+0.373 (-0.037)
> Player: 52.08% (G:29.54% B:1.20%)
> Opponent: 47.92% (G:15.89% B:1.32%)
> Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.364..+0.382) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

I would not consider stepping up with the back checker here 'seeing daylight'. We essentially try to prime ourselves if we make the anchor.

Stick

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Rollout: Blitz versus prime

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