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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Hit twice?

SubjectAuthor
* Hit twice?Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Hit twice?Timothy Chow

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Hit twice?

<uotqp5$2b329$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Hit twice?
Date: Thu, 25 Jan 2024 09:21:24 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 25 Jan 2024 14:21 UTC

XGID=--a-CaC-BB--cB-b-c-cbB--A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 156 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Hit twice?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Hit twice?
Date: Sat, 27 Jan 2024 09:05:51 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 27 Jan 2024 14:05 UTC

XGID=--a-CaC-BB--cB-b-c-cbB--A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 156 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

X has ten checkers in the zone, which is often enough to justify a blitz
attempt. However, X has only a two-point board, and O's forward position
has no weaknesses, so it's not that easy for the blitz to succeed. Also,
X has a strong alternative play of advancing his anchor to O's bar
point.

See the variant for a position where attacking is a more viable plan.

1. Rollout¹ 24/18 21/18 eq:-0.087
Player: 48.00% (G:10.60% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 52.00% (G:13.01% B:0.51%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.100..-0.075) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/5* 8/2* eq:-0.229 (-0.142)
Player: 43.41% (G:16.59% B:0.59%)
Opponent: 56.59% (G:16.85% B:0.95%)
Confidence: ±0.019 (-0.248..-0.211) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--aBCaC-B---cB-b-c-cbB--A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X | | X O X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

1. Rollout¹ 8/5* 8/2* eq:+0.087
Player: 48.71% (G:24.36% B:0.59%)
Opponent: 51.29% (G:14.51% B:0.81%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.077..+0.097) - [99.2%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/18 21/18 eq:+0.070 (-0.017)
Player: 51.48% (G:15.38% B:0.58%)
Opponent: 48.52% (G:12.96% B:0.53%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.060..+0.079) - [0.8%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Hit twice?

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