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interests / rec.games.backgammon / I assessed a position correctly

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* I assessed a position correctlypeps...@gmail.com
`- Re: I assessed a position correctlyTimothy Chow

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I assessed a position correctly

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Subject: I assessed a position correctly
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Sun, 28 Jan 2024 15:57 UTC

Here I had a clear preference for the greedy play -- I wasn't in coin-toss mode.
Though I did consider the decision close.
And that's exactly what the bot says -- play greedy but the decision's close.
Obviously, it makes all the difference in the world that I usually have a
return shot if hit.

Paul

XGID=aBCCBBB---------------acc-:1:-1:1:62:9:9:0:11:10

X:Daniel O:XG Roller+
Score is X:9 O:9 11 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O | +---+
| | | O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X X X X X |
| | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 47 O: 37 X-O: 9-9/11
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 62

1. 4-ply 6/Off 2/Off eq:+0.166
Player: 58.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 41.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

2. 4-ply 6/4 6/Off eq:+0.145 (-0.021)
Player: 57.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 42.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

3. 3-ply 6/Off 3/1 eq:+0.049 (-0.117)
Player: 52.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 47.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

4. 1-ply 6/Off 5/3 eq:-0.246 (-0.413)
Player: 37.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 62.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

5. 1-ply 6/Off 4/2 eq:-0.280 (-0.446)
Player: 35.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 64.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Re: I assessed a position correctly

<up8beo$fttn$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: I assessed a position correctly
Date: Mon, 29 Jan 2024 09:07:20 -0500
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In-Reply-To: <de4024c3-8996-4a14-be97-5de9fd897097n@googlegroups.com>
 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 29 Jan 2024 14:07 UTC

On 1/28/2024 10:57 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> Obviously, it makes all the difference in the world that I usually have a
> return shot if hit.

Your opponent's blot is certainly relevant, but I think the primary
consideration is how close the race is.

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=aBCCBBB------------a---cc-:1:-1:1:62:9:9:0:11:10

Score is X:9 O:9 11 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O | +---+
| | | O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X X X X X |
| | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 47 O: 40 X-O: 9-9/11
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 62

1. Rollout¹ 6/4 6/Off eq:+0.281
Player: 64.05% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 35.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.279..+0.283) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/Off 2/Off eq:+0.273 (-0.008)
Player: 63.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 36.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.271..+0.275) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=aBCCBBB----------------cc-:1:-1:1:62:9:9:0:11:10

Score is X:9 O:9 11 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X X X X X |
| | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 47 O: 34 X-O: 9-9/11
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 62

1. Rollout¹ 6/Off 2/Off eq:-0.077
Player: 46.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 53.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.001 (-0.078..-0.076) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/4 6/Off eq:-0.097 (-0.020)
Player: 45.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 54.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.001 (-0.098..-0.095) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

interests / rec.games.backgammon / I assessed a position correctly

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