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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Hit or not?

SubjectAuthor
* Hit or not?Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Hit or not?Timothy Chow

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Hit or not?

<upmh67$3aqqj$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Hit or not?
Date: Sat, 3 Feb 2024 18:11:03 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 3 Feb 2024 23:11 UTC

XGID=-bBBaBBB-B--cB---A-bbc--b-:1:-1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O X X | | X X X X O |
| O X X | | X X O X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 107 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 63

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Hit or not?

<uptg9b$u16v$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Hit or not?
Date: Tue, 6 Feb 2024 09:38:34 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 6 Feb 2024 14:38 UTC

XGID=-bBBaBBB-B--cB---A-bbc--b-:1:-1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O X X | | X X X X O |
| O X X | | X X O X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 107 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 63

I tried hitting here, but XG hates my play. If O's board weren't so
strong it might be a different story (see variant).

1. Rollout¹ 17/8 eq:+0.634
Player: 76.64% (G:21.31% B:1.61%)
Opponent: 23.36% (G:4.30% B:0.09%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.627..+0.642) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/4* eq:+0.523 (-0.112)
Player: 71.02% (G:28.78% B:2.92%)
Opponent: 28.98% (G:9.59% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.514..+0.531) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 17/11 9/6 eq:+0.513 (-0.122)
Player: 73.12% (G:20.83% B:1.58%)
Opponent: 26.88% (G:7.08% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.505..+0.520) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-bBBaBBB-B--cB---Abbba--b-:1:-1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O | +---+
| X O | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O X X | | X X X X O |
| O X X | | X X O X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 107 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 63

1. Rollout¹ 13/4* eq:+0.761
Player: 75.58% (G:35.75% B:4.72%)
Opponent: 24.42% (G:5.99% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.751..+0.771) - [99.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 17/8 eq:+0.741 (-0.019)
Player: 79.15% (G:24.55% B:2.27%)
Opponent: 20.85% (G:3.05% B:0.10%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.735..+0.748) - [0.1%]

3. Rollout¹ 17/11 7/4* eq:+0.734 (-0.027)
Player: 74.75% (G:36.02% B:4.71%)
Opponent: 25.25% (G:6.63% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.726..+0.743) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Hit or not?

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