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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Some kind of late-game cube action

SubjectAuthor
* Some kind of late-game cube actionTimothy Chow
`- Rollout: Some kind of late-game cube actionTimothy Chow

1
Some kind of late-game cube action

<ustdub$179q3$2@dont-email.me>

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https://news.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=13618&group=rec.games.backgammon#13618

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Some kind of late-game cube action
Date: Wed, 13 Mar 2024 19:47:22 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 13 Mar 2024 23:47 UTC

XGID=-AbEB-Fb----A------bbbbc--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | 6 X |
| | | X X |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X O |
| X O | | X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 72 O: 124 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Some kind of late-game cube action

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Some kind of late-game cube action
Date: Thu, 21 Mar 2024 22:44:47 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 22 Mar 2024 02:44 UTC

XGID=-AbEB-Fb----A------bbbbc--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | 6 X |
| | | X X |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X O |
| X O | | X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 72 O: 124 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

I was at sea in this position, and passed, figuring that my winning
chances were probably around 25%, and that I would lose a fair number
of gammons as well. But XG says that I win about 30% of the time.
X's inflexible board is helpful to O; see the variant below.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 69.58% (G:13.86% B:0.36%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.42% (G:1.41% B:0.04%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.01% (G:13.89% B:0.30%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.99% (G:1.39% B:0.03%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.639 (-0.140)
Double/Take: +0.779
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.221)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.003 (+0.636..+0.642)
Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+0.768..+0.790)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-AbEC-Eb----A------bbbbc--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X X |
| | | X X |
| | | X X X |
| O | | X X X O |
| X O | | X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 70 O: 124 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 73.92% (G:15.98% B:0.44%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.08% (G:1.61% B:0.04%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.51% (G:16.18% B:0.49%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.49% (G:1.59% B:0.04%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.674 (-0.326)
Double/Take: +1.030 (+0.030)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.004 (+0.669..+0.678)
Confidence Double: ± 0.010 (+1.020..+1.040)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Some kind of late-game cube action

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