:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2023 Nov 06 0227 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
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# # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
# Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
30 October - 05 November 2023

Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. Low levels occurred on
30-31 Oct and 03-04 Nov. Moderate levels were reached on 01-02 and
05 Nov with four impulsive M1 flares observed from Region 3474 (S18,
L=326, class/area Dki/460 on 31 Oct) and one impulsive M1 flare
observed from 3480 (S09, L=204, class/area Dai/180 on 04 Nov).

Three geoeffective CMEs were observed during the highlight period.
At 31/1918 UTC, a 25 degree long filament, centered near S38E25,
erupted with an associated CME off the SE limb. At 02/0230 UTC,
dimming was observed near N28E30 with an associated CME off the NE
limb. At about 03/0430 UTC, a 33 degree long filament, centered at
N26W29, erupted with an associated CME off the NW limb. All three of
these CMEs produced significant geomagnetic activity on 04 and 05
Nov, mentioned later in this report.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels on 30 Oct to 04 Nov with a maximun flux of 9,840 pfu
observed at 04/1700 UTC. Low to moderate levels were observed on 05
Nov.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels on 30
Oct to early 02 Nov with isolated active intervals observed on 30
Oct. This activity was the result of positive polarity CH HSS
influence. Quiet levels were observed for the majority of 02 Nov
through about midday on 04 Nov.

The solar wind environment became enhanced at around 04/1100 UTC
with the apparent arrival of a CME, believed to be from 31 Oct. An
additional stronger enhancement was observed at about 05/0810 UTC,
believed to be the result of influence from a CME that left the Sun
on 02 Nov. A third enhancement was observed in solar wind data
beginning at 05/1146 UTC, believed to have been associated with the
03 Nov CME.

A geomagnetic sudden impulse was observed across the global
magnetometer network following the arrival of a pair of
interplanetary shocks. The Wingst magnetometer registered a 24 nT
sudden impulse at 05/0905 UTC following the first shock. The Niemegk
magnetometer registered a 22 nT deviation at 05/1232 UTC following
the second shock.

Total magnetic field strength (Bt) increased from 16 nT to 24 nT
during shock passage at 05/0810 UTC. It continued to increase to 34
nT at 05/0838 UTC. Bt increased further to 45 nT, just after the
thrid shock arrival at 05/1146 UTC. The Bz component was mostly
southward, with a maximum deflection to -27 nT observed at 05/0858
UTC. Solar wind speeds increased from about 320 km/s to a maximum of
about 530 km/s at 05/2227 UTC.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
06 November - 02 December 2023

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a varying
chance for M-class activity pn 06-16 Nov and again on 29 Nov-02 Dec.
Mostly low levels are expected from 17-28 Nov.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high levels on 09-14 Nov and 26 Nov-02 Dec. Normal
to moderate levels are expected on 15-25 Nov.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at active to moderate
storm levels on 06 Nov due to transitory CME influence. Unsettled to
active levels are anticiated 0n 07-11 Nov, 14-16 Nov and 22-28 Nov,
all due to recurrent CH HSS influence. Mostly quiet levels are
expected on 12-13 Nov, 17-21 Nov and 29 Nov-02 Dec.